Java trends du jour

It’s been less than a year since Sun Microsystems announced the Java programming language to the world. Last May, when the formal Java unveiling took place at SunWorld ’95, who would’ve guessed that today nearly 2,000 Java applets would exist? That Microsoft would signed a Java licensing agreement (nevermind agree to develop and maintain the reference implementation of Java for Windows?) Or that Java-related products, trade shows, books, and periodicals would multiply faster than Internet users?

Whether you credit Java’s deliberate collection (and, in some cases, rejection) of existing technologies, it’s accessible product name, its grass-roots marketing campaign, or its fortune to be in the right place at the right time, there’s no denying Java has a place in the hearts and minds of today’s developer community and Web site creators.

But where will Java — described by some as a third-generation language largely based on concepts that have existed for years — be 6 or 12 months from now?

This is the daunting question I faced along with my editorial director when we were asked to speak to a group of technology company executives from Japan who were in San Francisco to attend the recent Netscape Internet Developers Conference (which had a strong emphasis on Java and JavaScript). Heck, I can’t even accurately predict whether I’ll make it home in time for dinner tonight.

Japan is not the only area that ponders Java’s future. In fact, as this month’s News Briefs exemplify, lots of companies already have a stake in Java’s fate, and many more are placing their bets. Whether chasing a star or getting in on the ground floor, these developers and corporations are committing to Java before it reaches puberty. And they no doubt would like to anticipate trends in the Java community.

While no one can predict Java’s future with certainty, we have seen some themes sounded consistently in the Java community:

• Don’t forget about the intranets — internal corporate networks. While Joe developer focuses on writing commercial applets and selling them to the masses over the global Internet, smarter developers and consultants increasingly have recognized the potential for applets in private networks. Furthermore, corporate clients have money, and will pay for worthwhile solutions. Conclusion: the intranet may make or break Java.

• Java is more than an applet development tool. It’s a full-fledged language that strives to replace C++ someday and become a common choice for development of true applications. If you overlook Java’s role outside of Web-based applets, you may be missing big opportunities.

• Java’s potential is huge. This single product has prompted the creation of a series of Java-specific CPUs, and is talked about as a core component of both the operating system and the applications of the imminent Internet appliances expected from Oracle, Sun, and just about everyone else. Java also has potential to end up in a broad variety of consumer devices such as personal digital assistants (PDAs) and home appliances.

• Just-in-time compilers, due from various vendors this summer, should squelch complaints about Java’s performance. As performance improves, developers increasingly will consider Java a viable alternative to C++ and other established, compiled programming languages.

• Java-related jobs continue to sprout — and these posts are not confined to programmers. JavaSoft currently seeks to fill an estimated dozen Java marketing-related slots in addition to several dozen technical positions. And Java licensee Netscape tells us they are looking for two Java Technical Evangelists and an editor for its technical developer publication, ViewSource. (If you know someone who’d be interested, have them send a resume to tice@netscape.com.) Furthermore, the technical recruiting firm Pencom says its clients expressed a significant interest in Java employees beginning several months ago.(By the way, if your company needs Java people, write us at javajobs@javaworld.com.); we’re in the process of setting up classified job listings.)

These trends, like Java itself, are subject to rapid evolution. To stay up to date, you should of course read JavaWorld’s News & Views section. For trend trackers reading this month’s issue, we especially recommend that you:

• Browse the “News Briefs”, which include several reports on forthcoming products and discusses some of the ongoing issues (such as security bugs) that impact Java.

• Read “How can Java rule the world?” and learn about three key issues that currently face Java and its prospects for short- and long-term success.

• Review the quantity and breadth of scheduled Java-related events in our JavaWorld calendar.