In search of the fabled elephants' graveyard of software developers over 40
We all know that software development is a young man’s game. While hotshot young coders get fat raises and promotions to management, older programmers have an ever more difficult time finding work. Right?
In a recent editorial, Norman Matloff, a professor of computer science at the University of California, Davis, describes software engineering as a career dead end. “Many programmers find that their employability starts to decline at about age 35,” Matloff writes.
If this were radio, here’s where I’d cue the sound of the needle skipping off the record. Age 35? I thought we were talking about older programmers. Since when is 35 old?
“Statistics show that most software developers are out of the field by age 40,” Matloff continues, and here my eyebrows really start to rise. Most programmers? As in the majority of them? Gone? (Matloff declines to mention which statistics he’s reading.)
If that’s true, where do they go? Is there some Island of Misfit Programmers, where we send the burned-out, broken-down models to expire gracefully, out of sight of their younger brethren? Or do they get their real estate licenses? Open scrapbooking stores? Somehow I doubt it.
Is the sky really falling? Now, I’m not going to do an about-face and claim that age discrimination doesn’t exist in software development. It probably is more prevalent in tech fields than in other industries. But I have to say that as I read Matloff’s rather astounding claims, my gut reaction is that I just don’t buy it.
First, the anecdotal evidence: I know quite a lot of people, but I’m at an age when just about everyone in my social circle has reached or is fast approaching 40. That includes a number of software developers. What does it say about me, I wonder, that every single one of my programmer friends also happens to be a statistical outlier?
Besides statistics, fearmongering editorials like Matloff’s are usually bolstered by a few choice quotes from tech luminaries. Matloff himself cites former Intel CEO Craig Barrett as saying, “the half-life of an engineer, software or hardware, is only a few years.” Furthermore, he says, Mark Zuckerberg … well, but let’s not worry about him.
Even if Gordon Moore’s offhand remarks have become “laws,” I’m not going to give Craig Barrett the same privilege just because he once held the same title. Pithy quotes do not hard research make. So where do all the programmers go? I’m guessing here, but I have a few ideas.
Hunkering down For starters, some of them don’t go. They become highly specialized in a certain area, industry, tool, or company, and they carve out a lucrative niche sticking to what they do best. These are the coders who go on to become “distinguished engineers” at larger tech businesses. They’re also the true statistical outliers in Matloff’s data, so let’s forget about them.
Other programmers are inevitably promoted to management. I know, you’re rolling your eyes. “A career in software development doesn’t necessarily prepare you to be a great manager,” you’re saying. Guess what? Neither do management training courses.
It’s also not the point. Promotion tends to come with a new job title. Telling people your new title is the best way to let people know you’re in a more senior position. The next time a survey comes around that asks you to specify your job role, you’ll probably check the box next to “project manager” instead of “software developer” — even if you’re still directly involvedin every step of the software design, specification, development, testing, and deployment process.
Promotion is a way of retaining employees. But believe it or not, graduating to a management position on a software development team doesn’t mean you’ve given up being a software engineer. Depending on how the statistics were compiled, however, it might look that way.
Forging new paths, under the radar Other developers don’t leave the field, but they do quit their jobs. They go on to found startups, where their titles might be principal or CTO. Entrepreneurs have a way of slipping through the cracks of employment surveys — again, throwing off the statistics.
Employment surveys have a way of missing independent contractors, too. Yet consulting can be particularly lucrative for software developers, and it tends to favor mature programmers with extensive industry experience.
Obviously, however, if you’re not looking for a full-time job, they can’t measure things like how long it took you to find a full-time job. Have you noticed the national unemployment figures don’t include “discouraged workers,” the ones who’ve stopped looking for work? Contractors affect employment statistics the same way.
Along those lines, let’s examine one of the statistics Matloff cites. According to one study, he says, “It took 23.4 percent longer for the over-40 workers to find work after losing their jobs.” That’s interesting, but the research doesn’t suggest why — maybe they spent some time consulting.
One thing about mature workers is that they’ve paid their dues. They’ve probably made a few mistakes, had a few bad jobs, and become accustomed to a certain standard of living. They might not feel as much pressure to grab the first job that comes along, particularly if they’ve been living comfortably on six figures for the last few years. Perhaps mature workers take longer to find new jobs because their standards are higher?
Mixed messages But who cares what Matloff says anyway, right? Lies, damn lies, statistics, and all that. Older tech workers probably have a fair idea of where they are in their careers, despite the doomsayers. What troubles me, though, is the message that articles like Matloff’s send to the younger generation, particularly those who have yet to enter the workforce.
On the one hand, high tech seems to be one of the few truly thriving industries still left in the United States. Companies say they can’t find enough qualified candidates. Politicians and educators are racking their brains trying to find ways to get youth interested in computing. And software development consistently ranks among the best jobs available, year after year.
On the other hand, we have essays like Matloff’s, which claim that programming is a dead end and programmers can expect to be sent to the glue factory at an age when professionals in most other fields are at the peak of their careers. At best, it’s silly and sensational. At worst, it’s downright irresponsible.
This article, “Where do all the old programmers go?,” originally appeared at InfoWorld.com. Follow the latest news in programming at InfoWorld.com. For the latest business technology news, follow InfoWorld.com on Twitter.
