The big show in Las Vegas will be crowded with NCs, PDAs, thin clients, and more
London (November 7, 1996) — A bevy of network computers, Internet appliances, thin clients, personal digital assistants, smart televisions, and even smarter telephones promise to swamp this year’s Comdex trade show in Las Vegas.
These devices will be powered by microprocessors and will provide a link to the Internet, just like PCs — but that is where the similarity between NCs and PCs stops.
“Unlike now, where the general-purpose PC is used everywhere, in the future there will not be a single solution for all environments but a variety of computing devices,” said Kaoru Tosaka, associate senior vice president at NEC Corp. in Japan. “I believe there will be many different devices catering for the many different applications.”
Most vendors entering this market are lining up behind industry powerhouses — either Oracle Corp. and its network computer architecture or Microsoft Corp. and its NetPC architecture. However, Diba Inc., an Internet appliance technology startup, has just added Panasonic Personal Computer Corp. and Proxima Corp. to a list of customers that includes Zenith Data Systems Inc., Hitachi PC Corp. AT&T, Samsung Electronics Co., and Sanyo Electric Co. Panasonic and Promixa will launch Internet appliances using Diba’s set-top box technology at the show.
Another small vendor worth watching at the show is Citrix Software Inc., which last week licensed its ICA Client software to Sun Microsystems Inc. ICA lets users run a full Windows session on thin clients. Under the terms of the agreement with Sun, Citrix will port ICA to the Java virtual machine environment so that Java clients can run full 32-bit Window sessions. “This is really the missing link because it provides a like between Java and Windows,” said Peter Watkins, technology strategic planning manager with the Provincial Government of British Columbia in Victoria, Canada.
The irony is that the so-called paradigm shift to network computing may pump new life into old equipment, rather than inspiring sales of new NC hardware.
Watkins wants to run Java-enabled Citrix software on old 286 and 386 PCs to turn them into Windows NT clients. “You will see plenty of network computer boxes for around U.S.00 at Comdex,” Watkins said. “But it’s the monitor that is the most expensive part of the PC, so I believe the trick is to reuse the equipment you have.”
Battling the Oracle NC for the Comdex spotlight will be Microsoft and Intel Corp., with their proposed NetPC specification. NetPC is designed to reduce the cost of ownership of PCs by providing enhanced management capabilities to systems managers.
Microsoft will also display its Windows CE architecture, a small-footprint operating system designed to let hand-held devices interoperate with Windows and provide World Wide Web browsing capabilities.
Hardware vendors such as Casio Computer Products Ltd., NEC Computer Systems Inc., Hewlett-Packard Co., Philips Consumer Electronics Co., and LG Electronics Inc. will exhibit Windows CE products at this year’s show, according to Microsoft officials.
NEC’s Windows CE Internet appliance is called the MobiePro, and should be on the market by December for about 00, according to company officials.
Network computer evangelists — Sun, Oracle, and the Oracle-owned Network Computer Inc. — will, however, be conspicuously absent from this year’s Comdex.
“Oracle never exhibits at Comdex and I guess NC Inc. is following that lead,” said a Network Computer spokeswoman. “However we will be exhibiting at the Consumer Electronics Show next year, and some of our partners will be at Comdex,” she added. Oracle’s partners will be hosted at Comdex by Digital Equipment Corp.’s Semiconductor division, which co-developed the StrongARM processor with the U.K.-based Advanced RISC Machines PLC.
Exhibiting on the Digital stand will be Acorn Computer Group PLC, with its NetStation NC Type I. The product is available now and is retailing at around 00. Acorn will also display its ExecPhone, a desktop telephone with a network computer, its Set-Top Box network computer (STB-NC) and its network computer TV.
Korean manufacturer LG Electronics Co. has either jumped the Windows CE ship or has decided to hedge its bets: It is also scheduled to show an ARM SA-110 based Internet device along with Wyse Technology Inc. and Boundless Inc. on the Digital stand.
There has also been speculation that Digital itself may release an NC product. Acorn Network Computing CEO Malcolm Bird last week told a reporter that his firm and DEC were working on network computer products as well as microprocessor technology. However, Digital chairman, president, and CEO Robert Palmer denied anything was in the works.
“We’re not working on an [Internet] appliance for Digital to manufacture,” Palmer said in San Francisco this week. “I see our primary area of growth is the servers. I believe network computers, more likely, will be built by the consumer electronic companies.”
However, at least one analyst pointed out that Digital markets other products that it does not manufacture. “Digital outsources their X-terminal manufacturing to Wyse Technology now,” said Jim Garden, technical director at the Hampton, New Hampshire-based consulting firm, Technology Business Research Inc.
Garden believes that the NC has been foolishly pitched against the PC. “The NC is more likely to replace dumb terminals,” said Garden. “According to our figures there are 20 million character-based terminals still in the world today.”
IBM is clearly one vendor that agrees: it intends to offer customers network computing devices to replace dumb terminals, an IBM spokesman said.
IBM also is working on an electronic point-of-sale (EPOS) system based on the network computer architecture, according to IBM officials. When asked if it has any plans for a mobile NC, IBM said it will not consider manufacturing a mobile NC until it’s sure that a market for the device exists.
With the amazing array of new devices, new software and new solutions to old problems, users may be forgiven for writing off this paradigm shift as yet another false promise from the industry. Three years ago most major vendors had a Personal Digital Assistants (PDA) strategy, but those products proved too expensive and too difficult to use to capture users’ imaginations.
But the various NC devices may be different. IBM, for instance, has won over major U.K. companies such as British Telecom PLC, NatWest PLC, Reuters PLC, Barclays Bank PLC, the Automobile Association, and the Financial Times, who will all shortly announce that they are adopting a network computer strategy, using Sun’s Java programming language to roll out applications to employees. IBM’s success has been such that supply — and not demand — for its network computer will be its biggest problem next year, said Gavin Roach, senior consultant for IBM’s NC solutions group.
Meanwhile, Wyse Technology, the erstwhile dumb terminal vendor, has already shipped 20,000 thin clients and has orders for another 70,000 before the end of the year, according to the company.
Overall, analysts believe that network computer and information appliances will fill the gaps in today’s computing environments.
“I think the potential market for network computing for Windows CE devices is huge,” said Kimball Brown, vice president of desktop and mobile PCs at market research firm, Dataquest. The bottom of the PC spectrum won’t drop past the ,200 to ,500 range, leaving plenty for CE-enabled systems, which will be able to go that low, he said.
